This is Alpha, the first-born, when he was 2YO.
This is Beta, the second-born, when he was about 2YO.
This is Gamma, the third-born, when he was about 18MO.
Sep
27
2012
You cannot stop The Ferninator
I know, I know … it’s a hosta, not a fern. How about if we say the hosta is a Model 101 and the fern is a T-1000?
For thus the Lord said to me, “In a year, as a hired man would count it, all the splendor of Kedar will terminate;”
Isaiah 21:16
Sep
25
2012
Some people were disappointed that my site’s consensus pick for week 2 of the 2012 NFL season was incorrect. After pondering what happened, I am not going to blame the officiating. Rather, I will just have my disclaimer ready.
Warning: consensus picks are no more than 85% accurate.
I went through the whole 2011 season and tallied how many consensus picks there were and how many times it was correct. (One of the many uses for spreadsheets…) I did that for when all 8 forecasting methods agreed, as well as 7 of 8, 6 of 8, and 5 of 8.
Here are the results:
| Week | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 / 4 | 2 / 3 | 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 50% | 67% | 100% | 50% |
| 2 | 2 / 2 | 2 / 4 | 5 / 6 | 0 / 2 | 100% | 50% | 83% | 0% |
| 3 | 1 / 1 | 2 / 3 | 4 / 5 | 4 / 5 | 100% | 67% | 80% | 80% |
| 4 | 3 / 3 | 3 / 3 | 1 / 1 | 0 / 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| 5 | 1 / 2 | 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 3 / 3 | 50% | 100% | 50% | 100% |
| 6 | 2 / 3 | 4 / 5 | 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 | 67% | 80% | 100% | 0% |
| 7 | 1 / 1 | 2 / 3 | 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 33% |
| 8 | 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 3 / 4 | 2 / 2 | 100% | 50% | 75% | 100% |
| 9 | 1 / 2 | 3 / 5 | 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 | 50% | 60% | 67% | 0% |
| 10 | 1 / 1 | 0 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 5 / 8 | 100% | 0% | 50% | 63% |
| 11 | 5 / 5 | 1 / 1 | 3 / 3 | 1 / 4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 25% |
| 12 | 3 / 3 | 2 / 2 | 2 / 4 | 3 / 5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 60% |
| 13 | 3 / 4 | 1 / 1 | 4 / 6 | 3 / 3 | 75% | 100% | 67% | 100% |
| 14 | 6 / 6 | 3 / 3 | 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 | 100% | 100% | 50% | 33% |
| 15 | 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 | 2 / 6 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 33% |
| 16 | 3 / 3 | 1 / 3 | 4 / 4 | 1 / 2 | 100% | 33% | 100% | 50% |
| 17 | 4 / 4 | 1 / 1 | 2 / 2 | 3 / 5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 60% |
| Total | 41/ 48 | 31 / 45 | 39 / 53 | 30 / 58 | 85% | 69% | 74% | 52% |
So, if all 8 picks agree, they have an 85% chance of being right. Since they were wrong in week 2, they should be correct for the next several picks.
For by wise guidance you will wage war, And in abundance of counselors there is victory.
Proverbs 24:6
Sep
24
2012
This recently-completed weekend was the unofficial Holland Half-Marathon.
That’s because there was too much lightning in the area, so the race organizers packed up the equipment for the finish line and they left. They were telling people that the race was black-flagged, but no one told us runners that. It’s a good thing I had my watch and was keeping my own time, because my chip was useless for anything after the 84-minute mark.
I saw the guy around the quarter- or half-mile mark. He had the red and white cane like one would expect, but the end was a plastic ball so that it would slide on the pavement. He didn’t tap the cane – he just pushed it along. I wasn’t quite sure that he was fully blind though, until he missed the turn after the 1-mile mark. He might have run into the police car that was there to block traffic, if it hadn’t been for the race volunteer standing there to direct the runners. She caught him just in time and directed back with the rest of us runners.
Shortly after that, I noticed a guy in a black running shirt with green trim. He started running with the blind guy (I’ll call him Scott because I think that’s his name). The new guy’s shirt said “Team Gazelle” on it, and I gathered from some of his conversation with Scott that he worked for Gazelle Sports (which happens to be a sponsor of the Park 2 Park race). The Gazelle guy (whom I’ll call Rob because I don’t really know his name) then ran with Scott for the rest of the race, all 11.5 miles that we had left.
I’ve never been to Gazelle Sports, but if that’s the kind of service and support they give to someone who is not a customer, imagine how they treat someone who walks into their store. I saw Rob after the race, but the gym was crowded with people and my family was waiting for me so I didn’t get a chance to ask him any questions. And since there are no race results, I can’t confirm that Scott was his real name or make an educated guess as to what Rob’s name might be (other than that is the name of one of the guys on the Gazelle Sports website).
So if you’re wondering “Should I eat before a race?” the answer is “yes”. Don’t eat right before the race – I try to finish eating at least an hour before the race. For this half, I had about 2 scrambled eggs, 2 pieces of ham, a yogurt, a Nutri-Grain bar, a bowl of cereal, and half a banana. For a 5k, I’d allow more time between eating a running, probably more like 3 hours. And I wouldn’t eat as much.
That’s it for this race update. I’m sure you will be eagerly awaiting next month’s race update (sneak preview: I ran, I finished, I can still walk) (sneak preview is subject to change without notice).
‘Cursed is he who misleads a blind person on the road.’ And all the people shall say, ‘Amen.’
Deuteronomy 27:18
Sep
20
2012
Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall.
Proverbs 16:18
Sep
18
2012
Dear Presidential Candidates:
I won’t trust much of what goes on in the campaign; in fact, I won’t even pay attention to it. But if you do want to gain my attention – and my vote – then please include these items in your promises to the American people.
Promise us that
For the second-to-last item, a candidate could promise to observe Groundhog Day on that day, or make up a new holiday. The point is to give us that Monday off, to recover from the Super Bowl.
For that last point, an additional consequence should be that the person cannot vote in the next election. If someone is going to re-elect a writing utensil that everyone agrees is bad, how can he be trusted not to re-elect a bad president, governor, or congressman?
What would you like to add to the list?
You shall be careful to perform what goes out from your lips, just as you have voluntarily vowed to the Lord your God, what you have promised.
Deuteronomy 23:23
Sep
17
2012
The movies on the bad list are not worth your time. If you have an opportunity to see those movies, I advise you to skip them. The first movie in the series may be entertaining, but quit while you’re ahead and do not see these.
Regarding the movies on the good list: If you liked the first movie in the series, I think you’ll like the others that I listed.
For both lists, I restricted the list to movies that I have seen. For example, I’ve heard that Iron Man 2 is not worth seeing, but since I have not seen it, I did not include it.
Any others that I forgot? Or what would you like to add to either list?
I will set no worthless thing before my eyes; I hate the work of those who fall away; It shall not fasten its grip on me.
Psalm 101:3
Sep
13
2012
I took a picture of this keyboard. A fellow engineer had modified it with labels so that it would be matched to the workload of a certain co-worker of his. I apologize for the quality of the photo, but I’ll list the keys afterward.
Note: “Eng” means engineer.
Top Row: Complain to Chief Eng 1, Complain to Chief Eng 2, Complain to Chief Eng 3
Middle Row: Forward to Eng 1, Forward to Eng 2, Forward to Eng 3
Bottom Row: Forward to Manager 1, Forward to Manager 2, Forward to Manager 3
Navigation Keys: Yes, We’ll Do That
Num Pad: Select Project 1, Select Project 2
And he called him and said to him, ‘What is this I hear about you? Give an accounting of your management, for you can no longer be manager.’
Luke 16:2
About Me: 
Crocker Chronicle