NFL in April 2012

In the last week or two, we had the announcement of the 2012 NFL schedule. Now that we know who will play whom and when, we can start predicting wins and losses.

I keep my predictions over at Some Fun Site. View results of previous football seasons.

2011 Summary

Last year, I predicted that

  • Kansas City Chiefs = 11-5
  • Minnesota Vikings = 4-12
  • New York Giants = 10-6

How they actually did was

  • Kansas City Chiefs = 7-9
  • Minnesota Vikings = 3-13
  • New York Giants = 9-7

Two of those were close. Not too bad…

How about the methods overall?

I’m glad you asked, although you may be regretting it soon.

2011 Full Results

Team Actual ITP DP MPWLS ITPLS DPE Average
Arizona 8-8 10-6 8-8 * 1-15 3-13 12-4 7-9
Atlanta 10-6 13-3 8-8 15-1 16-0 8-8 12-4
Baltimore 12-4 6-10 9-7 13-3 15-1 10-6 11-5
Buffalo 6-10 12-4 7-9 0-16 1-15 9-7 6-10 *
Carolina 6-10 6-10 * 8-8 0-16 0-16 1-15 3-13
Chicago 8-8 15-1 9-7 10-6 14-2 14-2 12-4
Cincinnati 9-7 3-13 1-15 4-12 1-15 2-14 2-14
Cleveland 4-12 12-4 7-9 5-11 2-14 10-6 7-9
Dallas 8-8 8-8 * 5-11 6-10 4-12 7-9 6-10
Denver 8-8 16-0 9-7 1-15 1-15 16-0 9-7
Detroit 10-6 0-16 3-13 6-10 4-12 4-12 3-13
Green Bay 15-1 8-8 6-10 16-0 10-6 6-10 9-7
Houston 10-6 15-1 5-11 6-10 4-12 7-9 7-9
Indianapolis 2-14 0-16 8-8 11-5 10-6 3-13 6-10
Jacksonville 5-11 12-4 6-10 2-14 7-9 10-6 7-9
Kansas City 7-9 11-5 11-5 8-8 11-5 9-7 10-6
Miami 6-10 6-10 * 9-7 5-11 7-9 2-14 6-10 *
Minnesota 3-13 4-12 10-6 4-12 4-12 5-11 5-11
New England 13-3 1-15 1-15 16-0 16-0 2-14 7-9
New Orleans 13-3 3-13 7-9 13-3 * 14-2 8-8 9-7
New York Giants 9-7 4-12 10-6 10-6 12-4 10-6 9-7 *
New York Jets 8-8 15-1 10-6 12-4 13-3 10-6 12-4
Oakland 8-8 2-14 9-7 8-8 * 8-8 * 11-5 8-8 *
Philadelphia 8-8 3-13 10-6 13-3 11-5 6-10 9-7
Pittsburgh 12-4 7-9 14-2 15-1 14-2 12-4 * 12-4 *
San Diego 8-8 9-7 10-6 14-2 9-7 4-12 9-7
San Francisco 13-3 16-0 5-11 8-8 5-11 10-6 9-7
Seattle 7-9 0-16 5-11 2-14 9-7 7-9 * 5-11
St. Louis 2-14 14-2 13-3 10-6 9-7 5-11 10-6
Tampa Bay 4-12 11-5 8-8 9-7 10-6 10-6 10-6
Tennessee 9-7 2-14 7-9 9-7 * 6-10 11-5 7-9
Washington 5-11 12-4 12-4 4-12 6-10 15-1 10-6

* = correct guess

2012

Now that the 2012 schedule is out, I have setup the 2012 NFL predictions. Here is my summary of the results:

2012 Summary

Consensus (3 or more methods in agreement):

  • Buffalo Bills = 5-11

Small list this year – not much consensus.

2012 Full Predictions

Team ITP DP MPWLS ITPLS DPE Average
Arizona 13-3 8-8 4-12 9-7 10-6 9-7
Atlanta 4-12 9-7 12-4 13-3 7-9 9-7
Baltimore 16-0 7-9 15-1 14-2 13-3 13-3
Buffalo 6-10 5-11 5-11 5-11 7-9 6-10
Carolina 1-15 2-14 6-10 3-13 10-6 4-12
Chicago 10-6 8-8 9-7 7-9 2-14 7-9
Cincinnati 2-14 9-7 9-7 12-4 6-10 8-8
Cleveland 11-5 3-13 2-14 1-15 10-6 5-11
Dallas 0-16 3-13 10-6 8-8 0-16 4-12
Denver 15-1 12-4 4-12 7-9 10-6 10-6
Detroit 7-9 5-11 12-4 13-3 8-8 9-7
Green Bay 13-3 6-10 15-1 16-0 16-0 13-3
Houston 5-11 7-9 13-3 12-4 11-5 10-6
Indianapolis 7-9 11-5 0-16 2-14 2-14 4-12
Jacksonville 2-14 8-8 3-13 3-13 5-11 4-12
Kansas City 7-9 9-7 2-14 6-10 5-11 6-10
Miami 4-12 7-9 11-5 4-12 8-8 7-9
Minnesota 16-0 9-7 3-13 2-14 13-3 9-7
New England 1-15 7-9 16-0 16-0 3-13 9-7
New Orleans 10-6 6-10 16-0 15-1 14-2 12-4
New York Giants 15-1 12-4 5-11 9-7 10-6 10-6
New York Jets 16-0 9-7 8-8 10-6 16-0 12-4
Oakland 13-3 10-6 7-9 9-7 4-12 9-7
Philadelphia 4-12 6-10 12-4 6-10 8-8 7-9
Pittsburgh 7-9 10-6 14-2 15-1 6-10 10-6
San Diego 3-13 7-9 12-4 7-9 11-5 8-8
San Francisco 0-16 3-13 13-3 13-3 6-10 7-9
Seattle 9-7 11-5 7-9 6-10 7-9 8-8
St. Louis 7-9 12-4 0-16 0-16 7-9 5-11
Tampa Bay 12-4 10-6 1-15 2-14 3-13 6-10
Tennessee 13-3 8-8 6-10 10-6 10-6 9-7
Washington 7-9 12-4 4-12 4-12 5-11 6-10

The most realistic method is the David Postulate, since it does not predict any 0-16 or 16-0 teams. The most unrealistic, going by those same measures, is Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate, since it has 3 teams going undefeated and 2 going winless.

Of course, if any major player gets injured, that team’s projected results are void.
Also, if any roster has changed from last year, that team’s projected results are void.

And who knows what will happen with Indianapolis with their new quarterback? And Denver with their new quarterback? And the Jets with Tebow? No guarantees for my predictions of those teams, either.

Or do you not know that the saints will judge the world? If the world is judged by you, are you not competent to constitute the smallest law courts?

1 Corinthians 6:2

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This little article thingy was written by Some Guy sometime around 6:16 pm and has been carefully placed in the Sports category.

2 Responses to “NFL in April 2012”

  1. Burrill Says:

    You should add the Saints to the list of no guarantees, what with their suspended coach and other disciplinary issues. That team is a mess.

  2. NFL in April 2013 •• Some Blog Site Says:

    […] Last year, I predicted that […]

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