Some Blog Site

Some people were disappointed that my site’s consensus pick for week 2 of the 2012 NFL season was incorrect. After pondering what happened, I am not going to blame the officiating. Rather, I will just have my disclaimer ready.

Warning: consensus picks are no more than 85% accurate.

I went through the whole 2011 season and tallied how many consensus picks there were and how many times it was correct. (One of the many uses for spreadsheets…) I did that for when all 8 forecasting methods agreed, as well as 7 of 8, 6 of 8, and 5 of 8.

Here are the results:

So, if all 8 picks agree, they have an 85% chance of being right. Since they were wrong in week 2, they should be correct for the next several picks.

This recently-completed weekend was the unofficial Holland Half-Marathon.

• I say “unofficial” because it didn’t really happen for most of us there. Although there were hundreds of runners there, only about 15 or so actually got results.

  That’s because there was too much lightning in the area, so the race organizers packed up the equipment for the finish line and they left. They were telling people that the race was black-flagged, but no one told us runners that. It’s a good thing I had my watch and was keeping my own time, because my chip was useless for anything after the 84-minute mark.

• So I finished, got my finisher medal and bottle of water (thanks to those volunteers for sticking around), and stretched my legs. Then, as we were walking to the food tables (which had been moved to the gym for weather reasons), it started raining more. And hailing. I grabbed some food, saw the (few) race results, then got in my parents’ minivan for the ride back to my sister’s house. The weather was a far cry from last year’s 70-and-sunny day.
• That was the most notable thing about the race. That, and my sister won her age group for the 5k. Since she finished in under 84 minutes, she did get an official result, as did my brother-in-law.
• The other notable thing about the race, at least to me, was that there was a blind runner. I had never seen someone running blind before, so that’s why it was notable. Next time, it won’t be so notable.

  I saw the guy around the quarter- or half-mile mark. He had the red and white cane like one would expect, but the end was a plastic ball so that it would slide on the pavement. He didn’t tap the cane – he just pushed it along. I wasn’t quite sure that he was fully blind though, until he missed the turn after the 1-mile mark. He might have run into the police car that was there to block traffic, if it hadn’t been for the race volunteer standing there to direct the runners. She caught him just in time and directed back with the rest of us runners.

  Shortly after that, I noticed a guy in a black running shirt with green trim. He started running with the blind guy (I’ll call him Scott because I think that’s his name). The new guy’s shirt said “Team Gazelle” on it, and I gathered from some of his conversation with Scott that he worked for Gazelle Sports (which happens to be a sponsor of the Park 2 Park race). The Gazelle guy (whom I’ll call Rob because I don’t really know his name) then ran with Scott for the rest of the race, all 11.5 miles that we had left.

• I ran about the same pace as Scott – they were either just ahead of me or just behind me until about mile 8.5, when Scott had to stop and stretch his legs and they never caught back up to me after that. I must commend Rob for going above and beyond his obligations – he ran with Scott, helped him make turns and avoid obstacles (some large puddles were on the course), kept a conversation going, and even got him water at the water stations. Scott would keep running past the water stations, and Rob would stop, get two waters, catch back up to Scott, and hand him a cup of water.

  I’ve never been to Gazelle Sports, but if that’s the kind of service and support they give to someone who is not a customer, imagine how they treat someone who walks into their store. I saw Rob after the race, but the gym was crowded with people and my family was waiting for me so I didn’t get a chance to ask him any questions. And since there are no race results, I can’t confirm that Scott was his real name or make an educated guess as to what Rob’s name might be (other than that is the name of one of the guys on the Gazelle Sports website).

• I’ll finish with one tip: be sure to eat before you run. That was my mistake I made when I first started running marathons (and halves) – I did not eat much breakfast, because everyone knows you are not supposed to eat and run. Think about it this way: you will burn through at least 1500 calories running a half-marathon (or 3000 calories for a full marathon). If you do not have a good amount of food in you, from where will those calories come? Answer: they won’t, and your body will try to shut down during the race because it doesn’t have enough energy to run.

  So if you’re wondering “Should I eat before a race?” the answer is “yes”. Don’t eat right before the race – I try to finish eating at least an hour before the race. For this half, I had about 2 scrambled eggs, 2 pieces of ham, a yogurt, a Nutri-Grain bar, a bowl of cereal, and half a banana. For a 5k, I’d allow more time between eating a running, probably more like 3 hours. And I wouldn’t eat as much.

That’s it for this race update. I’m sure you will be eagerly awaiting next month’s race update (sneak preview: I ran, I finished, I can still walk) (sneak preview is subject to change without notice).

It’s September, the start of the NFL season. Time for me to update my win-loss prediction page.

Here’s the link: 2012 NFL season predictions.

Here’s the summary: MYW is off to a good start; it went 12-4 for week 1. My other prediction methods (MPW and MPWLS) were 10-6. And the other methods (HTW, ITP, ITPLS, DP, and DPE (mostly borrowed from TMQ)) were all 9-7.

If you need straight-up win-loss predictions, all 8 methods agree that the Cardinals will lose to the Patriots in week 2.

Since there is some debate about the best way to measure who won the Olympics (correct answer: “We all did”), I thought I would prepare the results using several different methods so that various countries could claim to be the winners.

Usually the debate centers around do only golds count or do all medals count. The seemingly official method is to count by golds, but there are some other ways.

Since there are too much data to put into one post, I’ll summarize the results in this post and also point to another page that contains the unsummarized data.

Summary: Grenada won the 2012 Olympic games

The only category which Grenada did not win was normalization by athlete count. In other words, Grenada was very efficient as a country but not so efficient as an Olympic delegation.

For the complete data, please view the charts on the 2012 Olympics Results page.

Another Warrior Dash has come and gone. I was a little slower in this one, but I’ll blame most of that on the swimming. Last year there was some water but no swimming. This year we had to swim somewhere around 70 yards. And I mean really swim, in that you could not touch the bottom of the lake. That was in running clothes, with running shoes, and after having run for a mile. Even in a swimsuit and not having run, I am not that great of a swimmer.

On the bright side, the swim was a nice cooling-off break from running.

The mud this year seemed thinner. Last year it was more like a milkshake. This year it was more like dirty water. Now I sound like a snob: “The mud was not to my liking.” Don’t get the wrong idea – the race was still fun.

Now on to some pictures:
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As I set here recovering from the Warrior Dash, I have to to reflect on what made the WD a good event (I was going to use the word enjoyable, but that does not seem appropriate). Several things came to mind, but one that did not was grammar.

To show you why, I am providing the following image, which is what WD tells you to bring to the race.

And here’s a close-up of the section for what not to bring.

Any guesses as to the grammar problem?

They left out a hyphen.

I have extra hyphens here. I could donate them to any promotional or informational materials that can’t afford them.

They said that you should not have a “clean shaved chin”. Since clean and shaved are separate words, not joined by a hyphen, we can consider them separately.

So one could bring a shaved chin that is dirty.
And one could bring a bearded chin that is clean.
But one cannot bring a shaved chin that is clean.

The hyphen helps you to avoid ambiguity – do not be afraid to use it.

It should be “clean-shaved chin”. You want clean to modify shaved and clean-shaved to modify chin. You do not want both clean and shaved to modify chin.

But maybe they did want to say what it said. Maybe a clean bearded chin is acceptable.

I was pondering some things during my Saturday-morning run, and the one that seemed best to share with the internet was my list of fruit to eat during a race.

Yes, I said “during a race”.

In the longer races – half-marathon or more – you can be on the course for at least a couple of hours. You will definitely get thirsty, but the race will have stations setup to provide drinks for you. You might get hungry, but the race will probably not have stations setup to provide food for you.

One of the races in which I ran had an unofficial food station. It was unofficial in that the people who setup the station were not part of the race organization. They were just some people who had a location along the race course and were being helpful. It was a pleasant surprise. I encourage groups with a presence along a race route to setup something during the race. Almost anything is better than nothing: drinks, food, a live band, a stand-up comedian, a sprinkler, etc.

If you choose the food option, please pay attention to the following list:

Fruit During a Race

• Bananas
  Most people know that bananas are good for runners, but they are always served at the end of the race. I can see why, since bananas are not juicy enough on their own and require something to wash them down. That’s especially noticeable when running. If you do choose to serve bananas, make sure you are situated shortly before a hydrating station.

  Tips for serving bananas:

  1. Cut them in half
     No one wants to eat a whole banana while running. It’s too much.
  2. Peel them partway
     No one wants to try to peel a banana while running. It has to be peeled enough so that the thing can be eaten using only one hand (and a mouth, of course).
  3. But don’t peel them too far
     No one wants to hold the banana part of the banana. Runners should be able to hold only peel. I like to keep my hands relatively clean during the race, because I wipe sweat off my face. And one thing that’s worse than having banana stuck to my hands is having banana smeared on my face.
  4. Provide a bin or bucket or bag for the peels
     No one wants to slip on a banana peel while running. Set out receptacles for the banana peels so that the run does not turn into Mario Kart.
• Grapes
  Grapes are almost the perfect fruit to serve during a race – they are self-contained, have zero mess, and are plenty juicy. Their only drawback is the choking hazard, which is amplified by the deep breaths drawn by runners. If you do serve grapes, be sure to have Heimlich specialists placed after the grape station.

  Slightly related: do not serve raisins. Too chewy and not juicy.

• Oranges
  This is the fruit from my story above – where I was glad to have people providing fruit during a race. Oranges are flavorful and juicy – very refreshing during a run on a hot day. Be sure to cut them in wedges so that can be eaten using only one hand. The circles (or “wheels” cut) require two hands to eat.
• Watermelon
  This has good flavor and plenty of hydrating power – but does it provide any nutrition or sugar? Still, it would be a welcome addition to a race. Keeping with the previous notes about serving suggestions: be sure to serve the pieces with the rind so that the runner can eat with one hand while taking bites at his own pace and not get that one hand all messy.
• Cantaloupe
  Maybe better than watermelon. Maybe not. Either way, I think it has the same serving notes as watermelon.
• Raspberries
  Or blackberries or blueberries or strawberries.
  I would say these rank slightly below grapes. More flavor with less of a choking hazard, but less juicy and more messy. Plus they’re probably more expensive. You are not going to get any financial help from the runners – I don’t know anyone who carries cash during a race.

Any other good fruits?