Some Blog Site

I thought I would see if there were any correlation between margin of victory (MOV) in the NFL playoffs and victory in the Super Bowl.

Short answer: No.

Long answer: Noooooooo.

Real answer: Maybe.

I went back over the last 15 years and found that the team that wins the divisional round by the most points (not scores the most points but has the highest margin of victory of the 4 divisional-round games) goes on to win the Super Bowl about 33% of the time.

This year, that was the 49ers. So they have only a 30% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Then I wondered about the conference round. The team that has the highest margin of victory in the conference round goes on to win the Super Bowl about 30% of the time.

This year, that was the Ravens. So they have only a 30% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Odds:
33% chance the 49ers will win
33% chance the Ravens will win
33% chance left over – apparently it’s a 1 in 3 shot that no one will win.

But since that can’t happen, I checked what happens when the Super Bowl pits the team with the best MOV in the divisional round against the team with the best MOV in the conference round. That has happened 3 times in the last 15 years – once the division round won and twice the conference round won.

So I guess that means the Ravens will (likely) win the Super Bowl. But since that was only 3 samples, I doubt there is much in the way of correlation there.

As a Michigan fan, I was cheering for Tom Brady. I know he lost, but there is still hope since there is another former Michigan quarterback in the Super Bowl – Harbaugh.

I haven’t decided yet for whom I will cheer in the Super Bowl. Probably the Ravens, but I don’t know why. I don’t have a strong inclination either way. I just hope it’s a good game and the ads are appropriate for all ages.

Inspired by Lance Armstrong’s news from a couple days ago, I have updated the list of the last several years of cycling world champions.

• 2011
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2010
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2009
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2008
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2007
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2006
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2005
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2004
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2003
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2002
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2001
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 2000
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1999
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1998
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1997
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1996
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1995
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1994
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —
• 1993
  • 1st: —
  • 2nd: —
  • 3rd: —

It seems that every winner is eventually accused of doping or otherwise using performance-enhancing drugs, so this is what the list of champions should look like. The cycling world can save some time by immediately stripping the next winner of his title, right after after they award it to him.

I’m a little behind the times, as usual, but various sportswriters have produced their end-of-the-season rankings for NFL quarterbacks. I found one of them for the top 10, and I updated it slightly. See if you can figure out what I changed.

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB
2. Tom Brady, NE
3. Peyton Manning, DEN
4. Robert Griffin III, WAS
5. Russell Wilson, SEA
6. Matt Ryan, ATL
7. Andrew Luck, IND
8. Colin Kaepernick, SF
9. Whoever Throws to Calvin Johnson, DET
10. Drew Brees, NO

Okay, okay, it is 2013 at this point, but the results are headlines as 2012 because they match with the 2012 predictions made in 2012 for the 2012 season. Also, the results are not all-haiku, just the predictions were. A more accurate title would be “Results for the All-Haiku Predictions made in 2012”.

Before the bowl games commenced for this past college football season, I made some predictions. Here, for your reading enjoyment, is the tally of those predictions. Note that the results are not in haiku form, in contrast to the predictions.

Results

Here is the list (correct predictions in green, incorrect in red):

Arizona over Nevada

Utah St. over Toledo

San Diego St. over BYU

Central Florida over Ball St.

Louisiana-Lafayette over East Carolina

Boise St.over Washington

Fresno St. over SMU

Western Kentucky over Central Michigan

Cincinnati over Duke

San Jose St. over Bowling Green

UCLA over Baylor

Rutgers over Virginia Tech

Texas Tech over Minnesota

Ohio over Louisiana-Monroe

Oregon St. over Texas

Air Force over Rice

West Virginia over Syracuse

Arizona St. over Navy

TCU over Michigan St.

Southern Cal over Georgia Tech

Vanderbilt over N. Carolina St.

Iowa St. over Tulsa

LSU over Clemson

Oklahoma St. over Purdue

Michigan over South Carolina

Georgia over Nebraska

Northwestern over Mississippi St.

Stanford over Wisconsin

Florida St. over Northern Illinois

Florida over Louisville

Kansas St. over Oregon

Texas A&M over Oklahoma

Pitt over Mississippi

Arkansas St. over Kent St.

Notre Dame over Alabama

And here are the results of the various forecasting methodologies (see the first year for description of the methodologies) (also, use the word methodologies if you want to sound important; methods would work just as well and is shorter) :

• Some Blog Site picks were 18-17 (worse than last year)
• CBS120 picks were 19-16
• HTW was 21-14 for the official Home Team Wins (HTW)
• HTW was 24-11 for the Geographical Home Team (GHT)
• Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate (ITP) was 17-18 if using HTW
• ITP was 19-16 if using GHT

I won’t analyze the results as much as I did last year, mainly because I had more time and more sleep last year. But it was a good year all predictors – every method was over 50%. I just need to figure how to better predict outcomes. Especially against the spread.

Thoughts on the season’s results

1. That was a nice playoff round. Now let’s have the championship game between Alabama and Texas A&M. I know the BCS has Oregon as the number 2 team, but I think the Aggies could beat the Ducks. Too bad we’ll never know…
2. You know what? – we should just skip the national championship game and give the title to the winner of the SEC again. I predicted as much last year, so let’s keep the streak going.

Conferences

Since the strength of the conference has something to do with the results, I thought I would tally each conference’s bowl game record for the 2012 (and the first bit of 2013) season.

• ACC: 4-2
• Big 10: 2-5
• Big 12: 4-5
• Big East: 3-2
• Independent: 1-2
• MAC: 2-5
• MW: 1-4
• PAC12: 4-4
• SEC: 6-3
• Sun Belt: 2-2
• USA: 4-1
• WAC: 2-0

So the best conference was the WAC (they won 100% of their bowl games) and the worst was the Mountain West (at 20% – if you are not Boise St., then you didn’t win).

Or maybe the WAC is the worst conference because they sent the fewest teams to bowl games again this year.

Perhaps you could say that the Big 12 and SEC were the best because they had 9 teams go to bowls. Or you could say they were just the most popular conferences.

Perhaps you could say that the SEC was the best because they won the championship (again). Or maybe the SEC is the best because they won the most bowls (at 6).

I don’t know what happened to the MWC. They used to win their bowl games, and Boise St. was supposed to strengthen the conference. They ended below 0.500 in bowls this year again.

Since the conferences are going to change slightly for next football season, who knows which the strong bowl conferences will be? But if I must predict, I’m saying Conf. USA will win 80% of its bowl games again. I’ll also make the standard prediction that the SEC will win the BCS again.

Based on the popularity existence of last year’s article predicting bowl games in haiku form, I present to you this year’s all-haiku bowl game predictions. Still America’s only all-haiku college football bowl game predictions.

These are listed in order of date (earliest first). Some picks are whom I think will win, and some picks are whom I want to win. I’ll leave it to you, the reader, to decide which is which.
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Proposed Rule Changes for the NFL

• Calling a timeout just before a field goal attempt will cost the team 5 yards. No one likes the attempts to ice the kicker. If you try to ice the other team’s kicker, you will make his attempt easier.
• A player who causes an injury via foul play are suspended for as long as the injured player is out. Players can be injured on accident, but those are not subject to this rule. For this rule, if you are flagged for a personal foul and the other player is injured, you can’t play again until he does. If that is a play or two, or a few games, you are done for that time. Play nicely.
• Celebrations are allowed only on first downs or scores for offense or turnovers or tackles for loss or stops on 3rd down for defense. Any other instances will be flagged for excessive celebration. You need to accomplish something in order to celebrate it.
• Centers will be held to the same standards as everyone else regarding false starts. No more jerking around and pointing after you are in position. Do not turn into the NBA, where travelling is allowed as long as you dunk. Let the quarterback call the audibles – you stay still until the snap.

Noticeably absent from this list is a modification to the Coach’s Challenge System (CCS, remarkably close to the equally popular (meaning, not popular at all) BCS). Plenty of other people are calling for an overhaul of the challenge/review system, so I’ll let them worry about that.

A little bit late, but it’s appropriate for today, the one-week anniversary of the Lions’ being denied a review of the Houston touchdown that should not have been.

Transcript:
The scene: Forsett Middle School, in the cafeteria
Refs: Hmm… Which lunch table?
Ref: I think we should sit over there
Jim Schwartz: I, too, think you should sit there.
Ref: Just because you said so, we are not going to do that
Jim Schwartz: Come on, guys!