Some Blog Site

The NFL seems more interested in the Super Bowl halftime show than the game. I have heard numerous ads about the show, and they are over-hyped. Not just hyped, but over-hyped. They are ads about just the halftime show, with no mention of the actual game.

So they got Rick Springfield to perform. “Watch as history is made!” Just because he has never performed in a Super Bowl show before, that makes it history? I’ve never performed in a Super Bowl halftime show either. If I performed, that would make history also. There are billions of people who fall into that group. I am not as impressed as the NFL would like me to be.

I think the reason they promote the show more than the game is that people who are going to watch the game are already going to watch the game. The NFL has them captive, so they don’t need to market it so much. They already know who is going to be playing the football game.  But there are probably people, fans of Bruce Dickinson or whoever he is, who would not normally watch the game but would tune in for the music.

Last year (Superbowl 42) there were 97 millions viewers for the game and 148 million for the halftime show. The show doesn’t need to be promoted – the game does. And the game lasts longer than the halftime show, so there are more ads to be sold for the game than for the show.

I, as usual, plan on skipping the halftime show. Not that I want to protest the music – just that it’s not football and therefore not as entertaining to me. I have other things I would rather do. Maybe I’ll check it occasionally to see if there are any good commercials.

“So I will silence the sound of your songs, and the sound of your harps will be heard no more. ”
– Ezekiel 26:13

Before the bowl games commenced for this past college football season, I made some predictions. Here, for your reading enjoyment, is the tally of those predictions. Note that the results are not in haiku form, in contrast to the predictions.

The numbers in parentheses are the CBS Sportsline 120 rankings, which is supposed to show where a team ranks in all of Division 1 (formerly known as FBS).  In theory, a team with a higher ranking (lower number) should beat a team with a lower ranking.  These rankings were gathered before the bowl games started; they are slightly different now.  I decided to check CBS’ accuracy also, so those numbers are included.

I also wanted to check a couple of methods mentioned by TMQ: Home Team Wins (HTW) and Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate (ITP – the team with the better record wins; if records are equal, home team wins).  So an ‘H’ is listed after the team that was the official home team for the game.  However, the official home team was not always the real home team, as the bowl game was sometimes closer to the visitor.  For example, Oklahoma was the official home team for the BCS championship game, but the game was held in Florida, so the Gators were the home team by location.

Here is the list (Some Blog Site’s prediction first – actual result second):

Navy (56)H over Wake Forest (51) – WF beat Navy
BYU (16) over Arizona (48)H – AZ beat BYU
South Florida (50)H over Memphis (79) – USF beat Memphis
Fresno State (58)H over Colorado State (68) – CSU beat FSU
Troy (59)H over Southern Miss (72) – So Miss beat Troy
Boise State (9) over Texas Christian (11)H – TCU beat Boise
Hawaii (67) over Notre Dame (65)H – ND beat Hawaii
Central Michigan (53)H over Florida Atlantic (85) – FAU beat CMU
California (30)H over Miami (49) – Cal beat Miami
Florida State (28)H over Wisconsin (41) – FSU beat Wisc
West Virginia (31) over North Carolina (32)H – WVU beat UNC
Northern Illinois (82) over Louisiana Tech (57)H – LTU beat NIU
Northwestern (22)H over Missouri (25) – Missouri beat NW
Rutgers (40)H over NC State (52) – Rutgers beat NC State
Oklahoma State (14) over Oregon (15)H – Oregon beat OK State
Western Michigan (35)H over Rice (34) – Rice beat WMU
Maryland (37) over Nevada (46)H – Maryland beat Nevada
Georgia Tech (13)H over LSU (54) – LSU beat GT
Kansas (44) over Minnesota (55)H – Kansas beat Minn
Boston College (24) over Vanderbilt (60)H – Vandy beat BC
Oregon State (27) over Pittsburgh (18)H – OS beat Pitt
Air Force (42)H over Houston (47) – Houston beat AF
Nebraska (29)H over Clemson (38) – Nebraska beat Clemson
Georgia (17) over Michigan State (20)H – UGA beat MSU
Iowa (26)H over South Carolina (39) – Iowa beat USC
Virginia Tech (19) over Cincinnati (12)H – VT beat Cincy
Penn State (7) over USC (5)H – USC beat PSU
East Carolina (33)H over Kentucky (62) – Kentucky beat ECU
Texas Tech (6)H over Mississippi (23) – Miss beat TT
Utah (8) over Alabama (4)H – Utah beat Bama
Buffalo (43) over Connecticut (45)H – UConn beat Buffalo
Texas (3)H over Ohio State (10) – UT beat OSU
Ball State (21)H over Tulsa (36) – Tulsa beat Ball State
Florida (1) over Oklahoma (2)H – UF beat OU

And here are the results:

• Some Blog Site picks were 14-20
• CBS picks were 16-18
• HTW was 13-21 for the official home team
• HTW was 19-15 for the actual distance home team
• ITP was 11-23 if using the official home team
• ITP was 15-19 if using the actual distance home team

What does this mean to you? It means that you should pick bowl game winners based on whose campus is closer to the bowl’s stadium. That was the only method that had a winning record.  That is, if you don’t want to research much.

Why don’t the other methods work?  Well, anything based on the official, listed home team is going to be off because the home team advantage has to do with the fans at the game, familiarity with the area, and travel fatigue.  So Oklahoma had no advantage being listed as the home team, and Florida had all the advantages.

Why was ITP worse than the straight-up rankings?  Because ITP was designed for the NFL, where conferences don’t mean as much and there are more cross-division games.  Yes, the NFL has some conferences that are tougher than others.  But they won’t be totally insulated from the other conferences as can happen in college.  So a team with a better record (the heart of ITP) in a weaker college conference can be much worse than another team with a worse record.  The difference is still there in the NFL, but the severity is much less.

Plus, the bowl selection committees want good games, in general.  So they pick teams that will match well with each other.  The bowls are, in effect, handling the parity for you.  So you know that an 8-5 Troy isn’t that much better than a 6-6 So. Miss.

Since the strength of the conference has something to do with the results, I thought I would tally each conference’s bowl game record for the 2008 (and the first bit of 2009) season.

Conferences

• ACC: 4-6
• Big 10: 1-6
• Big 12: 4-3
• Big East: 4-2
• Independent: 1-1
• MAC: 0-5
• MW: 3-2
• PAC10: 5-0
• SEC: 6-2
• Sun Belt: 1-1
• USA: 4-2
• WAC: 1-4

So the best conference was the PAC-10 and the worst was the MAC.  Perhaps you could say that the ACC was the best because they had ten teams go to bowls.  Or you could say the SEC was the best because they won the most bowls.

My two cents: have the best teams from the best conferences play each other in a +1 playoff.  That would mean having the PAC-10 winner (USC) face the Big East winner (Cincinnati) and the SEC winner (Florida) face the Conference USA winner (East Carolina), and then the winners of those two games would play for the championship.  Of course, that is based on after-the-fact bowl results to know which conferences were the strongest.  Plus it doesn’t get Utah in there, which they should be somehow.  How do you know which conferences are the strongest before the bowl games?  Good question.

“For we know in part and we prophesy in part;”
– 1 Corinthians 13:9

Congratulations to the Detroit Lions for their perfect season.  Yes, they went all season without winning a game.  Enough people have given their theories as to what the problem is and what needs to change that I won’t go into that here.

But I will say that the Lions are doing their part for the league.  In order for teams to win, other teams must lose.  The Lions, by going 0-and-16, are selflessly helping the other teams in the NFL by making more wins available.  The Lions already had good draft choices in previous years, so I doubt they were going for that.  So it must be that they just wanted to help.

Contrast that with my college: Cedarville University.  They have not lost a football game since 1953.  I even recall seeing T-shirts with that fact: “Undefeated since 1953”.  As you may have guessed, 1952 was the last time they played a football game.

In case you thought the Lions looked bad, you should look at Cedarville’s 1932 season.  Of particular note are two losses: 89-0 and 137-0.

“I know his fury,” declares the LORD, “But it is futile; His idle boasts have accomplished nothing.”
– Jeremiah 48:30

Editor’s note: today’s contribution is from guest writer Craigg Westerstream.

Since they are gaining in popularity, the all-haiku predictions are now making an appearance on Some Blog Site – still America’s only all-haiku college football BCS bowl predictions.

This is with apologies to TMQ, whom I can reference but not link to for cheerleader-based reasons.  He has his pre-season NFL predictions in haiku form.  During this year’s all-haiku predictions, TMQ mentioned that his used to be the only haiku predictions, but someone else began copying him.  I thought, “If someone else can copy him, why can’t I?”  I am now empowered!

These are listed in order of date (earliest first).  Some picks are whom I think will win, and some picks are whom I want to win.  I’ll leave it to you, the reader, to decide which is which.  Remember: all predictions wrong or … okay, I’ll stop there as I don’t want to plagiarize TMQ, just slightly imitate him.

Dec. 20th
EagleBank Bowl
Bank takes bailout funds.
Is this the taxpayer bowl?
Rematch: same result.

Navy over Wake Forest

Las Vegas Bowl
Based on common foes,
my guess is that BYU
has the advantage.

BYU over Arizona

St. Petersburg Bowl
Which team is better?
4 wins in C-U-S-A
or 2 in Big East?

South Florida over Memphis

New Mexico Bowl
Recent new bowl game
A new coach for CSU
Hill’s still at Fresno?

Fresno State over Colorado State

Dec. 21st
New Orleans Bowl
What used to be the
first bowl game of the season
is now the fifth one.

Troy over Southern Miss

Dec. 23rd
Poinsettia Bowl
At 13 and O,
Boise will wonder what they
have to do next year.

Boise State over Texas Christian

Dec. 24th
Hawaii Bowl
Long plane flight over –
Irish forget that they are
not on vacation.

Hawaii over Notre Dame

Dec. 26th
Motor City Bowl
Chippies spend Christmas
at home, welcome Owls to the
cold of Michigan.

Central Michigan over Florida Atlantic

Dec. 27th
Emerald Bowl
Each team has a streak
of three in a row to end
the ’08 season.

California over Miami

Champs Sports Bowl
Wisconsin Bagers:
Yes the ‘D’ is missing.  It’s
been like that all year.

Florida State over Wisconsin

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Can West Virginia
go O for 3 in this bowl?
The Tar Heels hope so.

West Virginia over North Carolina

Dec. 28th
Independence Bowl
How fitting that the
Independence Bowl gets a
day all to itself.

Northern Illinois over Louisiana Tech

Dec. 29th
Alamo Bowl
Wildcats and Tigers
Both Willie and Truman look
like friendly mascots.

Northwestern over Missouri

Papajohns.com Bowl
NC State, Rutgers
both on decent winning streaks,
but they can’t both win.

Rutgers over North Carolina State

Dec. 30th
Holiday Bowl
PAC-10 and Big 12
This one should be fun to watch.
Big 12 wins again.

Oklahoma State over Oregon

Texas Bowl
Rice is close to home,
but they can’t hold opponents
to single digits.

Western Michigan over Rice

Humanitarian Bowl
Does the bright blue turf
make the yellow first-down line
appear to be green?

Maryland over Nevada

Dec. 31st
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Les Miles is still glad
that he’s not at Michigan.
They’re not in a bowl.

Georgia Tech over LSU

Insight Bowl
Minnesota has
a losing conference record.
At least Kansas tied.

Kansas over Minnesota

Music City Bowl
A 5 and O start
helps break the long bowl-game drought
Expect rustiness

Boston College over Vanderbilt

Sun Bowl
Pitt has a better
record, but Oregon State
has Coach of the Year

Oregon State over Pittsburgh

Armed Forces Bowl
You would think that the
military-based team would
have to win this bowl.

Air Force over Houston

Jan. 1st
Gator Bowl
Who is the coach now?
Too many coaching changes
for Clemson to win.

Nebraska over Clemson

Capital One Bowl
These teams fell from their
high rankings.  At least they still
play on New Year’s Day.

Georgia over Michigan State

Outback Bowl
Penn State not a fluke,
Hawkeyes spoil another team’s
hopes for victory

Iowa over South Carolina

Orange Bowl
Winners of the two
small BCS conferences
Don’t get a big game

Virginia Tech over Cincinnati

Rose Bowl
Penn State represents
Big 10 in the BCS
Win one for JoePa

Penn State over USC

Liberty Bowl
Now it is time for
a fun, self-aware haiku:
This is the last line.

East Carolina over Kentucky

Jan. 2nd
Cotton Bowl
Red Raiders are set,
deep in the heart of Texas,
to avenge their loss

Texas Tech over Mississippi

Sugar Bowl
Utah helps to pave
the way for non-BCS
schools to get good bowls

Utah over Alabama

Jan. 3rd
International Bowl
Buffalo players
don’t have to go very far
to reach Canada

Buffalo over Connecticut

Jan. 5th
Fiesta Bowl
Teams have traded wins.
It’s the Longhorn’s turn this time.
They’re better this year.

Texas over Ohio State

Jan. 6th
GMAC Bowl
Ball State and Tulsa:
They’re both on a losing streak
of only one game

Ball State over Tulsa

Jan. 8th
Cleverly-named BCS Title Game Bowl
Both teams ran up scores.
Team with better record wins.
Same record? Home wins!

Florida over Oklahoma

“Therefore I exhort you, be imitators of me.”
– 1 Corinthians 4:16

The college football scene, division 1-A, is as interesting as ever.  The Big 12 South, which had most of the top-10 teams, is a tie.

I had hoped that Texas Tech would win the Big 12.  I hadn’t really cared about the Big 12 South, until the Texas-Texas Tech game.  I would have been happy regardless of who won; I was just glad to see a good, close, entertaining game for that one.  After TT won and was the only undefeated team in the Big 12, I was hoping they would finish out the season undefeated.  I figured with the way they were playing, and how Florida looked, a TT/UF championship game would be very entertaining.  That is, if you measure entertainment by points scored.

So now that TT lost to Oklahoma, there is a 3-way tie for the Big 12 South.  The top 3 teams all lost to each other.  Texas to Texas Tech, Texas Tech to Oklahoma, and Oklahoma to Texas.  The conundrum is figuring out who is the best in that circle.

I am now rooting for Missouri (Big 12 North champion) to beat whoever is the Big 12 South champion.  I don’t like the Big 12’s tie-breaker of BCS ranking.  The BCS is supposed to place conference champions in bowl games, not determine the conference champions.  The tie-breaker instead should be the records of the non-conference opponents.

So if Mizzou wins, that will avoid that problem completely.  And then the Big 12’s formerly top-ranked team will have a worse record than its formerly second-ranked team.  That would allow Utah to sneak into the championship game and cause some real fun.  Okay, USC will probably be ahead of Utah.  But it’s fun to speculate.

What I would like is for Missouri to win and allow someone else to play in the BCS championship game.  What I expect is that Texas will win and go on to face Florida.  I hope, and expect, that Florida will beat Alabama for the SEC championship.

The reason I don’t want Oklahoma in the championship game is that they have proved over the last few years that they don’t belong in the championship game.  They are good at losing their bowl games, and it would be nice to give someone else a chance to see if that other, non-Oklahoma team, would do any better.  So I will be rooting for Texas in the Big 12 South, as UT and OU each have one more game.

“Of the three in the second {rank} he was the most honored and became their commander; however, he did not attain to the {first} three.”
– 1 Chronicles 11:21

Why was baseball playing so late in the year?  Their schedule is too long, so they get what they deserve by having a game canceled by snow.  The 2008 baseball season started in late March.  The playoffs started in October, which means they had 6 over full months of regular season.  At least they kept the playoffs and championship to under a month.

The baseball season is way too long; baseball is being selfish by hogging half the year.  Here are my proposed rule changes, to be enacted by the Secretary of Sports (a new bureaucracy to be imposed by the new administration in Washington) – each sport gets 4 months, plus an extra month for playoffs and 2 weeks for the championship.

We’ll start with football, since it’s the best sport.

• Football gets fall, which is September, October, November, and December for regular games.
• Hockey gets winter, which is January, February, March, and April.
• Basketball has to share with hockey, but I think that the fan bases of each are okay with that.
• And baseball gets summer, which is May, June, July, and August.

Initially I was going to give each sport 3 months, so that the 4 major sports are evenly divided throughout the year.  But 3 months isn’t quite long enough, plus the playoffs would go into the next sport’s season anyway, so I settled on 4 months.

• Football stays the same – 4 months of regular season plus one month of playoffs and one week of championship.
• Hockey loses a month and a half, at the beginning of the season, plus May for playoffs and June for the championship.  So the last part stays the same.  That may need adjusting, because ice hockey should not be played in June.
• Basketball is in the same boat as hockey, which is fine, because they each had eight months of regular season plus championship stuff.  If you add in pre-season, it gets even worse.  A sports season should not take up the majority of the year – it needs to be but a season.
• Baseball loses the most, because it is the most bloated.  It started in late March and went through all of October.  If you add in the pre-season (late February for baseball), there are only 3 months of the year without baseball.

Since baseball uses about a month for the playoffs and championship, they would be done by the end of September.  Much better.

“There is an appointed time for everything. And there is a time for every event under heaven”
– Ecclesiastes 3:1

In general, playing offense is easier than playing defense.  Defense has to perfect, but offense has to be good only part of the time.  For example, in football, the offense can fail 75% of the time but still drive down the field and score.  In hockey, the offense usually takes 29 shots at the goal, but only 3 go in, and that’s good enough.  (Hockey and football – it’s a good time of year.)

I was thinking that the same principle should apply to lawyering: it should be easier to be the prosecuting attorney than the defense attorney.  But it seems that the prosecutors have a harder time, at least in the high-profile cases.  That’s because the rules are that the prosecution must be beyond a reasonable doubt, and “scoring” is not as straightforward as in sports.  In the lawyer world, you win by convincing the jury of something, and perception counts for a lot: witness credibility, character testimony, etc.  So the offense can be good, but the defense just has to create a reasonable doubt, not necessarily stop all of the offensive shots.

Or maybe it is easier to be the prosecutor.  I have no lawyerly experience, so I’ll stick to sports.  Offense is over-rated, because it’s easier.  Defenders should get more credit for the job they do.  In my opinion, the MVP of Super Bowl 34 (AKA SB XXXIV) should have been linebacker Mike Jones.  The offense gets the glory: would Charles Woodson have won the Heisman Trophy if he hadn’t played offense and returned punts too?