Some Blog Site

About a month ago, I announced that I had setup a webpage to track football prediction methods.

Now, I am announcing that I have added a new method – More Points Wins. So far this year, it’s more accurate than the Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate.

If you haven’t already followed the links in the above paragraphs, you can click here for details about how More Points Wins works or click here to track its (and the other methods’) results.

I took Beta to a hockey game – just him, no other kids. I had given him a choice of games – football (would have been a college game) or hockey (was a minor league (OHL) game). He chose hockey, so hockey we saw.

We were right on the glass, near the corner where the players make their grand entrance and where the crew (cleanup, ice maintenance, car to be given away, etc.) enter and exit. The first thing we noticed, after we sat down, was that the mascot was standing in the entryway to the ice and was a mere several feet from us.

For most kids that might not be a problem, but Beta is intensely distrustful of mascots, clowns, Santa Clauses, Halloween costumes, etc. So I was very impressed when Beta actually waved to the mascot. I think it helped that there was a significant barrier protecting us from the mascot.

Partway through the first period, a deflected pass went up into the nets that surround the ends of the rink. Since our seats were on the corner and were also the first row, we were under the netting somewhat. The netting was attached to the back of the glass so that if a puck hit the net and rolled down, it would end up in the first row of seats.

And that’s exactly what happened. The guy sitting next to us caught the puck. He was there with his family, so they enjoyed that. Then, a period later, the same thing happened again. The man was so very nice and gracious and offered that puck to Beta, who quickly accepted it. So he got an official game puck and made sure he knew where it was at all times (answer: in my pocket so we wouldn’t lose it).

When we walked into the rink, we had to go past all the vendors. I pointed them out to Beta – “here’s ice cream, do you want any?“, “there’s the food“, “here are roasted almonds, or you can have chocolate-covered pretzels“. Each time, I would ask him if he wanted anything. And each time, he would decline.

After the first period, I asked him again if he wanted anything. And again, he declined. I asked why he didn’t want anything, any dessert here at the game. He said he wanted to wait until we got home so he could have a Tootsie Roll. So I bought myself some roasted almonds. He wouldn’t even try one.

I thought seats on the glass would be fun, and they were. At least for me they were. Beta did not like the checking into the glass. I don’t know if he didn’t trust the Plexiglas-brand acrylic glass or if the noise was too loud, but each time something happened against the boards in front of us, Beta would lean as far back as he could.

Eventually, at his insistence, we moved back a row. That was for the third period. That, coupled with the fact the I couldn’t see much of anything that happened at the other end of the ice, means that when I go back, I want seats at least halfway up. Beta quite enjoyed the game. He said he wants to come back with Alpha next time, but not with Momma.

One last thing to note about the game: they were not just power plays, they were Air Force power plays. Apparently you can sponsor the power plays. At least the face-offs were anonymous.

All in all, it was a good game. It had just about everything one could want in a hockey game – checking, 5-on-4 power plays, a couple of 5-on-3 power plays, a hat trick, a throw-off-the-gloves fight (they both got penalties – 5 for fighting), and Canadians.

Beta fell asleep on the way home, holding his free coloring book and the puck. I think we’re off to a good start. Other children may fall asleep holding their blanket or stuffed animal – mine has his hockey puck.

New Webpage Announcement: You can now follow the weekly progress of football game-outcome formulae at Some Fun Site.

Background information: Tuesday Morning Quarterback is a column by Gregg Easterbrook, and he touts the generic formula that Home Team Wins (HTW) is a better predictor of who will win any given football game – better than most polls and experts.

His readers have contributed the Isaacson-Tarbell Postulate (ITP), which states that Better Record Wins, and that is even better than HTW. ITP uses HTW as plan B if the teams have the same record, so the winner of any given football game will be the team with the better record or, if their records are equal, the home team.

TMQ usually includes the HTW and ITP results (how accurate they were) near the end of the season. Readers who are interested in the current results, without waiting for TMQ, can find them over at Some Fun Site. This is currently setup for the NFL only. Adding the stats for college football results is a possibility. Whether it is near future or far future has not yet been determined.

Inspired by Jeff Daniels’ “Tiger Fan Blues Revisited“, I thought the Red Wings need a song that includes a bunch of the players’ names. Since I am not the singer/songwriter type, I am shamelessly spoofing an existing song.

Here goes… ahem…

Franzen, raises his hands after scoring at the goal crease, again
Oh, Fleury, maybe he’ll see a little better set of days (yeah)
Oh, slap shot, Abdelkader’s name said again ain’t that familiar (oh yeah)
Oh, Datsyuk, he can’t help, but we’d like to have him play (oh yeah)

(Penguins) Need a goal, can’t beat Osgood’s butterflies
Oh, in the zone, Lidstrom chases them away.
Someday soon, Wings will win the cup again, cup again, cup again

Holmstrom, standing by the goalie so he doesn’t see a thing (oh yeah)
Oh, Hossa, faster than the players that are on his former team
Oh, feelin’, Kronwall hit the Penguin player into yesterday
Oh, Cleary, a game-winning goal again will bring you fame (yeah)

Need a goal, getting rough as tempers rise
Oh, in the zone, Draper chases them away
Zetterberg, he’ll be in a fight again
Referees gently lead him away, him away, him awayyy

Yeah!

Even strength, Stuart killed the penalties
Oh, Hudler’s there, and he checks guys on his wayyyy
Breakaway, and a score by Filppula
Red Wings fans, octopus on the ice, on the ice, on the iiiice

Editor’s notes:

• I know “goal crease” is somewhat redundant. I didn’t have “goal” in there originally, but I needed to extra syllable to get that line to flow well. If not well, then at least better.
• The phrase “Penguins need a goal” implies that the Penguins are losing, not that the songwriter is cheering for the Penguins.
• The phrase about Datsyuk’s not helping was written while he was out with his injury and does not imply that he not helpful when he’s on the ice.
• I know Draper hasn’t played yet, but I put him in after it was announced that he should play in Game 4 at Pittsburgh.
• Cleary could have a better line (to the song, not his teammates). The alternate had something to do with “going to bring Stanley to Newfoundland again.”
• Why “Even Flow”? I was inspired by Tim Hawkins‘ “Kids’ Rock” commercial. Go watch it.
• If you’re going to look up the actual lyrics to “Even Flow”, be warned that many of the lyrics sites contain the CD version, not the radio version. Use Last FM’s lyrics for a clean set.

“Sing to Him a new song; Play skillfully with a shout of joy.”
– Psalm 33:3

I see that some people are complaining that the Oakland Raiders drafted Haywood Banks as wide receiver in the first round.

I can understand why they are complaining.  He is not that fast, nor is he all that strong.  Why use a first-round pick on him?  Plus he’s old.  Not old old, but definitely nowhere near the ages of the other draftees.  He’s old enough to be their father, possibly even grandfather.

I should add that he is usually funny.  I am not a fan of “Toast”, but I do like “The Music’s Too Loud“.  That one is much better than the toast bit.

What?  They drafted Heyward-Bey?

Never mind.

“Both the gray-haired and the aged are among us,Older than your father.”
– Job 15:10

I enjoy reading whatever’s on the cereal box during breakfast.  One side panel, on a chocolatey crispy rice cereal, was encouraging children to be active – probably because it is a sugary cereal and they need this public service announcement to make up for the unhealthiness of the cereal.

Part of the panel showed various sports and how many calories the average child would burn during 30 minutes of each sport.  It listed

• baseball: 60 calories
• soccer: 90 calories
• basketball: 90 calories
• football: 120 calories

So not only is baseball the most boring sport to watch, it is the most boring to play – it burns the fewest calories.

But don’t take the word a a cereal box for it – go look up calorie burn rates by sport. Beware though – baseball isn’t even on that list. It must not have qualified. Here are some excerpts, using the general non-game category for 130-lb person:

• basketball: 354 calories per hour
• soccer: 413
• football: 472
• swimming laps: also 472

And soccer? Don’t let your kids play soccer. Not only is it average at best for exercise, it is dangerous for high school kids to play (especially for girls) (and more dangerous than football). The combination of moderate exercise and high risk means that soccer should not be an option.

But football? The combination of good exercise and average risk factor means that football is a good option for your child. I suppose swimming might be even better, with the combination of good exercise and low risk factor.

Football players are more likely to be injured, but fractures and sprains usually heal with no lasting problems. Concussions are where you want to be concerned about your child. Football helmets are being improved to reduce concussions. What is being done in soccer to reduce concussions? And yes, even though soccer is supposed to be non-contact, soccer players are more prone to concussions than are football players.

Football is a contact sport, but the uniform and gear are setup to protect the players from damage. In soccer, only your shins are safe (even though shins heal fairly easily compared to concussions or ACL tears). You could try this article, which states “The injury rates, calculated per 100 athlete exposures during total events (games plus practices), were: baseball, 1.7; softball, 1.0; soccer, 2.1; and football, 1.5.”

“Those who seek my life lay snares {for me;} And those who seek to injure me have threatened destruction, And they devise treachery all day long.”
– Psalm 38:12

Like many other people I know, I was hoping that the Cardinals would win but expecting that the Steelers would win. I was not cheering against Pittsburgh, as I have nothing against them. But I did want Kurt Warner to win. So I cheered for Arizona but was not depressed when they didn’t win. Disappointed, yes, but not so much that I had trouble sleeping.

I find that with college football, I cheer for (or against) teams because they are those teams. For the NFL, I cheer for or against teams based on certain players. If Kurt Warner were not with Arizona, I don’t know that I would have been cheering for them.

My take on the game, not that my take matters much (and why is it called a take when really I am giving my opinion? I am not taking anything…) is that the Steelers didn’t win the game as much as the Cardinals lost it.

Certainly, the Steelers played well enough to win, and win they did. The Cardinals also played well enough to win, but they helped the Steelers a lot whereas the Steelers didn’t help the Cardinals much. The Cardinals made so many mistakes that’s it is easy to think that they should have won. The infamous “They were the better team.” They were the better team, but they didn’t play as well. It all matter how you play during that one game. Of course, after a game is over you can always say “If this had gone differently” or “If this hadn’t happened” and anyone can concoct a scenario where the loser would have won.

How many yards did the Steelers get as a result of Cardinal personal fouls? Is it legal for an offensive lineman to pull his own quarterback into the end zone? Did they really let a linebacker run 100 yards? Could nobody catch him before the 2-yard line? Is it possible for Clark to use his limbs to tackle someone instead of using only his helmet?

I was just glad that the Cardinals played well enough to almost win. It wasn’t looking too good at the half, and I was worried that Arizona would be lumped into the same category as Oklahoma and Ohio State – the team that gets put through to the championship game and then gets blown out by a real team.

“{A man of} great anger will bear the penalty, For if you rescue {him,} you will only have to do it again.”
– Proverbs 19:19