Some Blog Site

Since we’re in the sports doldrums (between hockey and football seasons), there’s a lull in the play-calling world. I know baseball is being played, but there aren’t many different defenses you can have in a baseball game. But enough about baseball – don’t get distracted from the main topic…

To fill the void of play calling during the summer months, I present to you Defensive Schemes for Parents.

You can look at this in at least 2 ways:

1. You’re a parent who wants to understand sports lingo, or
2. You know sports but don’t know how to handle the number of children you have

Guide to Football-style Diagrams: O is for offense (children in this case) and X is for defense (parents in this case).

I haven’t quite figured out what’s analogous to the goal line. But whatever it is, I have to make sure my kids don’t get there.

Transcript:
For a two-parent family,
1 child = double team
2 children = man to man
3 children = zone
4 children = prevent

I know I said I wouldn’t have any more football posts for a while, but I forgot about the release of the 2011 NFL schedule. And between now and the start of the season, I may go back and analyze previous seasons to get more samples of prediction methods.

In the last week or two, we had the NFL draft and the announcement of the 2011 schedule. Now that we know who will play whom and when (that is, if the NFL and players get their act together and resume football as we knew it), we can start predicting wins and losses.

I keep my predictions over at Some Fun Site. During the course of 2010, I saw that predictions based on the previous season’s results were just as good as predictions that updated themselves week-by-week. View results of previous football seasons.

2010 Summary

Last year, I predicted that

• Arizona = 12-4
• Carolina = 7-9
• Chicago = 5-11
• Cleveland = 2-14
• Detroit = 1-15
• New Orleans = 16-0
• Pittsburgh = 11-5
• San Diego = 15-1
• St. Louis = 0-16
• Tampa Bay = 2-14

How they actually did was

• Arizona = 5 -11
• Carolina = 2 -14
• Chicago = 11-5
• Cleveland = 5 -11
• Detroit = 6 -10
• New Orleans = 11-5
• Pittsburgh = 12-4
• San Diego = 9 -7
• St. Louis = 7 -9
• Tampa Bay = 10-6

Only one of those was close. So much for the consensus picks…

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Beta and I got free admission to a Michigan football game!

Of course, so did everyone else. It was the spring game – the final spring scrimmage – which is open to everyone.

I met my dad, brother, nephew, and a couple of my brother’s friends there. I didn’t plan my route very well and had to go right through the Stadium-Main St. intersection. That slowed me down, so I parked by Industrial with about ten minutes left before kickoff. Beta and I had to walk 4/5 of a mile to the Big House. I should add here that I had to wake Beta up at that the end of the car ride, so he was not going to be moving very quickly.

I decided that the only way we would make it in time was for me to carry him on my shoulders. I didn’t want to run, since I haven’t started my annual running season (Halloween to Easter is chocolate-eating season, Easter to Halloween is running season), so I walked as quickly as I could with a 37-pound weight on my shoulders.

We made it in the stadium a couple minutes after kickoff. And I was sweating. Everyone else had their winter coats on, since it was in the upper 40s, but I took mine off and was quite comfortable in my long-sleeved T-shirt, for about two or three possessions.

Once we sat down, we were at the 40-something yard line, 40-some rows up. Here’s the view from there (offense in blue, defense in white):

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This should be the last post about football prediction schemes for a while. Or even longer if the lockout continues.

I have, until now, just tested the NFL forecasting formula against the regular season – seeing how well each predicts that week’s game results.

But the regular season is just to see who makes the playoffs, then who will win the division, win the conference, and then win the Super Bowl. Today’s update is to see if those methods could predict – using the results of the regular season – who will be playoff champions.

I tested the equations against the top four teams (i.e. who played for the conference championship) as well as the Super Bowl winner. I have no reason for going that route, other than it was around the time of the college basketball tournament, so the term “Final Four” was popular.

To spare you the details, let me just say that it was worthless. The prediction methods didn’t really get you any closer to knowing who would make it to the end of the playoffs.

The good news is that I don’t have to plan a trip to Vegas any time soon.

You can view the details over at the football predictions page.

The end result is that your best bet is to pick the teams that have a first round bye. Then you have a 54.2% chance of picking who get to the conference championship.

Now that there’s no more NFL for 2011, I updated the Football Formula page to show how accurate the formulae are for years 2006 on up.

Of course, my intention was to show that More Points Wins is the most accurate method. And lo and behold, it was! Also of course, if it weren’t then I probably wouldn’t be promoting it.

Here they are, in order from most accurate to least:

1. MPW –   62.0% accurate
2. MYW –   61.2% accurate
3. ITP –   60.8% accurate
4. DPE –   58.8% accurate
5. ITPLS – 57.6% accurate
6. DP –    56.6% accurate
7. MPWLS – 56.6% accurate
8. HTW –   56.0% accurate

I went back only five seasons to get an average accuracy. I could do more seasons, but it takes a little while to gather the data for each season. So I probably won’t go back before 2006 unless someone commissions (i.e. funds) it.

On a related note, that means that you can now browse the 2006, 2007, and 2008 season predictions and results. For when you have nothing else to do.

I have criticized Adrian Peterson for his choice of words when discussing the tension between the NFL players and owners. Now, in the spirit of helpfulness, I want to give Mr. Peterson (or his agent) some ideas for what he should have said. He needs to craft his speeches a bit more carefully.

I have no clue if he or anyone near him is going to read this, but here are my suggestions for what to say to improve how he is perceived. Note: I put in the end of the previous answer, taken from the Adrian Peterson interview on Yahoo, in order to give some context to the statements (“SC” stands for Shutdown Corner – the area of Yahoo! Sports that published the interview):

Original Quote – Trying to Generate Sympathy

AP: …. The owners are making so much money off of us to begin with.

SC: It’s nothing that I haven’t heard from other players, believe me.

AP: It’s modern-day slavery, you know? People kind of laugh at that, but there are people working at regular jobs who get treated the same way, too. With all the money … the owners are trying to get a different percentage, and bring in more money. I understand that; these are business-minded people…

The problem with that is the same problem Marie Antoinette had. Peterson is essentially complaining about caviar while the general public is going hungry. Or rather, the players and owners are arguing about how to slice the cake, while the people who make the cake can’t even afford bread.

Improvement – Get on the People’s Side

AP: …. The owners are making so much money off of us to begin with.

SC: It’s nothing that I haven’t heard from other players, believe me.

AP: A lot of players feel that way, but we’re making enough money to be comfortable. With all the money … the owners are trying to get a different percentage, and bring in more money. The problem with that is that the money is coming from the fans. The average guy out there isn’t getting a pay raise, so why should any of us in the NFL? That’s why I’m trying to work with the players and the owners to see what both sides can give up in order to lower ticket prices for the fans. More fans means more business and it’s better for everybody.

Do you think anyone out there would disagree with Adrian Peterson if he had said that? Anything else that A.P. should have said?

Click on the image to see a full-size version (and zoom if your browser shrinks it to fit). It might be easier to read that way.

Transcript
Bog: Hey Marsh!
Marsh: Hi Bog.
B: What’s going on?
M: I’m angry! Just like every other year…
B: It’s time for Marsh madness again?
M: Yep.
B: Hey, I was talking with Creek and Swamp, and they wanted to know if…
M: No! Tell them I don’t want to help them make a deeper area of water again.
B: Okay, so you’re not participating in the pool this year?
M: No. Go away.
B: At least tell me why you’re so mad.
M: You know how we’re close to the Gulf Coast and all…
B: Right.
M: Well, I’m used to just the right amount of seawater mixed in here. But it’s way off this season.
B: Oh, you’re not happy with your brakish.
M: Not at all. And another thing…
B: Go on…
M: All these shrubs and weeds are sprouting in all the wrong spots!
B: Let me see…the seeding’s all messed up?
M: You got it. Who put those together anyway?
B: It is hard to please everyone.
M: Wait, where was the word-play in that last line?
B: There wasn’t one – you’ve had enough punishment for one day.