Archive for the ‘Sports’ Category

NFL in May 2011

I know I said I wouldn’t have any more football posts for a while, but I forgot about the release of the 2011 NFL schedule. And between now and the start of the season, I may go back and analyze previous seasons to get more samples of prediction methods.

In the last week or two, we had the NFL draft and the announcement of the 2011 schedule. Now that we know who will play whom and when (that is, if the NFL and players get their act together and resume football as we knew it), we can start predicting wins and losses.

I keep my predictions over at Some Fun Site. During the course of 2010, I saw that predictions based on the previous season’s results were just as good as predictions that updated themselves week-by-week. View results of previous football seasons.

2010 Summary

Last year, I predicted that

  • Arizona = 12-4
  • Carolina = 7-9
  • Chicago = 5-11
  • Cleveland = 2-14
  • Detroit = 1-15
  • New Orleans = 16-0
  • Pittsburgh = 11-5
  • San Diego = 15-1
  • St. Louis = 0-16
  • Tampa Bay = 2-14

How they actually did was

  • Arizona = 5 -11
  • Carolina = 2 -14
  • Chicago = 11-5
  • Cleveland = 5 -11
  • Detroit = 6 -10
  • New Orleans = 11-5
  • Pittsburgh = 12-4
  • San Diego = 9 -7
  • St. Louis = 7 -9
  • Tampa Bay = 10-6

Only one of those was close. So much for the consensus picks…

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Spring Game

Beta and I got free admission to a Michigan football game!

Of course, so did everyone else. It was the spring game – the final spring scrimmage – which is open to everyone.

I met my dad, brother, nephew, and a couple of my brother’s friends there. I didn’t plan my route very well and had to go right through the Stadium-Main St. intersection. That slowed me down, so I parked by Industrial with about ten minutes left before kickoff. Beta and I had to walk 4/5 of a mile to the Big House. I should add here that I had to wake Beta up at that the end of the car ride, so he was not going to be moving very quickly.

I decided that the only way we would make it in time was for me to carry him on my shoulders. I didn’t want to run, since I haven’t started my annual running season (Halloween to Easter is chocolate-eating season, Easter to Halloween is running season), so I walked as quickly as I could with a 37-pound weight on my shoulders.

We made it in the stadium a couple minutes after kickoff. And I was sweating. Everyone else had their winter coats on, since it was in the upper 40s, but I took mine off and was quite comfortable in my long-sleeved T-shirt, for about two or three possessions.

Once we sat down, we were at the 40-something yard line, 40-some rows up. Here’s the view from there (offense in blue, defense in white):

picture of the Michigan football spring game

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Conference Champs

This should be the last post about football prediction schemes for a while. Or even longer if the lockout continues.

I have, until now, just tested the NFL forecasting formula against the regular season – seeing how well each predicts that week’s game results.

But the regular season is just to see who makes the playoffs, then who will win the division, win the conference, and then win the Super Bowl. Today’s update is to see if those methods could predict – using the results of the regular season – who will be playoff champions.

I tested the equations against the top four teams (i.e. who played for the conference championship) as well as the Super Bowl winner. I have no reason for going that route, other than it was around the time of the college basketball tournament, so the term “Final Four” was popular.

To spare you the details, let me just say that it was worthless. The prediction methods didn’t really get you any closer to knowing who would make it to the end of the playoffs.

The good news is that I don’t have to plan a trip to Vegas any time soon.

You can view the details over at the football predictions page.

The end result is that your best bet is to pick the teams that have a first round bye. Then you have a 54.2% chance of picking who get to the conference championship.

But the LORD is with me like a dread champion;Therefore my persecutors will stumble and not prevail They will be utterly ashamed, because they have failed,With an everlasting disgrace that will not be forgotten.

Jeremiah 20:11

More Points Wins Wins

Now that there’s no more NFL for 2011, I updated the Football Formula page to show how accurate the formulae are for years 2006 on up.

Of course, my intention was to show that More Points Wins is the most accurate method. And lo and behold, it was! Also of course, if it weren’t then I probably wouldn’t be promoting it.

Here they are, in order from most accurate to least:

  1. MPW –   62.0% accurate
  2. MYW –   61.2% accurate
  3. ITP –   60.8% accurate
  4. DPE –   58.8% accurate
  5. ITPLS – 57.6% accurate
  6. DP –    56.6% accurate
  7. MPWLS – 56.6% accurate
  8. HTW –   56.0% accurate

I went back only five seasons to get an average accuracy. I could do more seasons, but it takes a little while to gather the data for each season. So I probably won’t go back before 2006 unless someone commissions (i.e. funds) it.

On a related note, that means that you can now browse the 2006, 2007, and 2008 season predictions and results. For when you have nothing else to do.

You are wearied with your many counsels;Let now the astrologers,Those who prophesy by the stars,Those who predict by the new moons,Stand up and save you from what will come upon you.

Isaiah 47:13

AP Needs New PR

I have criticized Adrian Peterson for his choice of words when discussing the tension between the NFL players and owners. Now, in the spirit of helpfulness, I want to give Mr. Peterson (or his agent) some ideas for what he should have said. He needs to craft his speeches a bit more carefully.

I have no clue if he or anyone near him is going to read this, but here are my suggestions for what to say to improve how he is perceived. Note: I put in the end of the previous answer, taken from the Adrian Peterson interview on Yahoo, in order to give some context to the statements (“SC” stands for Shutdown Corner – the area of Yahoo! Sports that published the interview):

Original Quote – Trying to Generate Sympathy

AP: …. The owners are making so much money off of us to begin with.

SC: It’s nothing that I haven’t heard from other players, believe me.

AP: It’s modern-day slavery, you know? People kind of laugh at that, but there are people working at regular jobs who get treated the same way, too. With all the money … the owners are trying to get a different percentage, and bring in more money. I understand that; these are business-minded people…

The problem with that is the same problem Marie Antoinette had. Peterson is essentially complaining about caviar while the general public is going hungry. Or rather, the players and owners are arguing about how to slice the cake, while the people who make the cake can’t even afford bread.

Improvement – Get on the People’s Side

AP: …. The owners are making so much money off of us to begin with.

SC: It’s nothing that I haven’t heard from other players, believe me.

AP: A lot of players feel that way, but we’re making enough money to be comfortable. With all the money … the owners are trying to get a different percentage, and bring in more money. The problem with that is that the money is coming from the fans. The average guy out there isn’t getting a pay raise, so why should any of us in the NFL? That’s why I’m trying to work with the players and the owners to see what both sides can give up in order to lower ticket prices for the fans. More fans means more business and it’s better for everybody.

Do you think anyone out there would disagree with Adrian Peterson if he had said that? Anything else that A.P. should have said?

For this reason the kingdom of heaven may be compared to a king who wished to settle accounts with his slaves.

Matthew 18:23

Basket Case

Click on the image to see a full-size version (and zoom if your browser shrinks it to fit). It might be easier to read that way.

comic of bog and marsh discussing NCAA basketball tournament terms

Transcript
Bog: Hey Marsh!
Marsh: Hi Bog.
B: What’s going on?
M: I’m angry! Just like every other year…
B: It’s time for Marsh madness again?
M: Yep.
B: Hey, I was talking with Creek and Swamp, and they wanted to know if…
M: No! Tell them I don’t want to help them make a deeper area of water again.
B: Okay, so you’re not participating in the pool this year?
M: No. Go away.
B: At least tell me why you’re so mad.
M: You know how we’re close to the Gulf Coast and all…
B: Right.
M: Well, I’m used to just the right amount of seawater mixed in here. But it’s way off this season.
B: Oh, you’re not happy with your brakish.
M: Not at all. And another thing…
B: Go on…
M: All these shrubs and weeds are sprouting in all the wrong spots!
B: Let me see…the seeding’s all messed up?
M: You got it. Who put those together anyway?
B: It is hard to please everyone.
M: Wait, where was the word-play in that last line?
B: There wasn’t one – you’ve had enough punishment for one day.

But its swamps and marshes will not become fresh; they will be left for salt.

Ezekiel 47:11

Modern-Day Slavery

All the radio stations were discussing a certain NFL player’s comments calling his situation “modern-day slavery”. Since everyone else seems to be offering opinions on his comments, I didn’t want to feel left out. So here are my thoughts:

An Open Letter to Professional Athletes

Dear Highly-Paid Athlete:

I hear you’re having a disagreement with the owners and executives of your team. In reality, your lot in life is not much different from most everyone else’s – someone owns the company and you get paid to show up and do what it is the company hired you to do.

That, my friend, is called a job. It is not slavery. You can choose to work at that job, or you can choose to retire tomorrow and not work. And there are a bunch of people who would love to be able to do what you do. I don’t know of anyone who thinks slavery is an enviable position. Nor are there any slaves who can choose to retire.

Now maybe you were trying to use a figure of speech and it just got lost in the context. But you used the specific term “modern-day slavery”. I need to point out that modern-day slavery is no different from old-time slavery. Slavery has not changed. Sure, America’s stance on slavery has changed since the 1800s. But there is still slavery.

Real slavery.

Not the I’m-slaving-away-at-my-job type, but the I’m-being-kept-against-my-will-and-working-for-nothing type of slavery.

Which is a far cry from your lot in life.

Yes, you have your problems, and I hope you can resolve them. But before you compare yourself to a slave, go spend a week with International Justice Mission so you know what modern-day slavery looks like. Go work in the brick kilns in Chennai for a week and then let us know how closely that compares to your life here in America.

Or better yet, how about devoting part of your salary to helping slaves? There are thousands of slaves in Sudan and millions of slaves throughout the world right now. Don’t just use them in your labor dispute. Don’t just reference them in your speeches. Do something for them.

Sincerely,

A Fan of Football

For what it’s worth, I think his comments were nothing more than poorly-planned choice of words. Maybe, maybe not. I’m not angry with the player, nor am I offended. I just felt it was an opportune time to highlight a real problem to contrast with the so-called problem of an NFL lockout or strike.

There – I have done my slacktivism duty.

And I know some NFL players already do go to Africa and help needy kids. Good for them. Let’s have more of that and less of the complaining about your contract. Millionaires don’t get much sympathy, especially not now.

Getting back to the NFL … I do not like the plan to go to 18 games for the regular season. Go ahead and drop the pre-season games from 4 to 2, but don’t increase the regular season – that would water down the season.

and might free those who through fear of death were subject to slavery all their lives.

Hebrews 2:15