I thought I would see if there were any correlation between margin of victory (MOV) in the NFL playoffs and victory in the Super Bowl.
Short answer: No.
Long answer: Noooooooo.
Real answer: Maybe.
I went back over the last 15 years and found that the team that wins the divisional round by the most points (not scores the most points but has the highest margin of victory of the 4 divisional-round games) goes on to win the Super Bowl about 33% of the time.
This year, that was the 49ers. So they have only a 30% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Then I wondered about the conference round. The team that has the highest margin of victory in the conference round goes on to win the Super Bowl about 30% of the time.
This year, that was the Ravens. So they have only a 30% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Odds:
33% chance the 49ers will win
33% chance the Ravens will win
33% chance left over – apparently it’s a 1 in 3 shot that no one will win.
But since that can’t happen, I checked what happens when the Super Bowl pits the team with the best MOV in the divisional round against the team with the best MOV in the conference round. That has happened 3 times in the last 15 years – once the division round won and twice the conference round won.
So I guess that means the Ravens will (likely) win the Super Bowl. But since that was only 3 samples, I doubt there is much in the way of correlation there.
As a Michigan fan, I was cheering for Tom Brady. I know he lost, but there is still hope since there is another former Michigan quarterback in the Super Bowl – Harbaugh.
I haven’t decided yet for whom I will cheer in the Super Bowl. Probably the Ravens, but I don’t know why. I don’t have a strong inclination either way. I just hope it’s a good game and the ads are appropriate for all ages.
But he took his stand in the midst of the plot, defended it and struck the Philistines; and the Lord brought about a great victory.
2 Samuel 23:12